Construction machinery industry law of development to explore

the industry know that construction machinery industry has strong periodicity, seasonal.But on the round bottom, concrete is which year which month which year which month is the peak?The downward cycle go to where, how long it was on the go, expected the next trough in where?Similarly, seasonal peak is a few months in a year?What month is low?What is the difference between different products?If the cyclical peak and seasonal trough overlay, or cyclical trough and seasonal peak superposition, how do we analyze industry trends?

s

in excavator industry sales data as the research object.

there are many different kinds of engineering machinery products, excavator is widely used, high sales, have QianZhiXing, representative of the products.This article selects from January 2009 to January 2022, a total of 13 years industry excavator sales data as the research object, analysis of engineering machinery periodical and seasonal characteristics.Data from published information industry.

.

industries have the characteristics of seasonal, cyclical and trend.

based on 1 January 2009 - January 2022 excavator industry monthly sales trend analysis (figure 1), business operation and development has three characteristics: in the short term, in March every year sales volume is significantly higher than other months, for years data in multiple tip shape wave crest, industry has obvious seasonal characteristics of serrated.From the medium term, in the last 13 years, forming two peaks, a trough, similar to "M.The first wave in the first quarter of 2011, a low point in the fourth quarter of 2015, the second wave in the fourth quarter of 2020, two wave time of about 10 years, operation and law of development of the construction machinery more in line with the jug cycle theory, industry have the characteristics of wavy economic cycle.The long term, the second wave as a whole is higher than the first wave, industry has up the long-term trend of development and growth.

3

to season data decomposition is an effective method of industry analysis.

excavator industry sales data, like a lot of time series data, its ingredients by the long-term trend, cycle, seasonal pattern and random fluctuation of four variables.In the real world and the corresponding original data, the four variables are intertwined, overlapping, brings to the industry analysis.

industry for accurate analysis law, by the method of data analysis, time series data of excavator industry sales season decomposition.Time series data is decomposed to produce three independent variables, one is the long-term trend and cycle combined variable, called sales trends, trends within a year sales sum equal to the sum of the actual sales of the same year, however, the trend of monthly sales is different from the actual sales, the sales trend has nothing to do with the seasonal characteristics, related to cyclical industry and long-term trends.Second, seasonal law of industry demand, known as seasonal factors, different years in the same season factor is the same, the same year season factor is different, different month demand in peak season factor data value is bigger, in low demand, seasonal factors of a smaller numerical average 12 months of the year season factor of 1.3 it is random fluctuations, stochastic fluctuation values are almost the same each month, but multiple random fluctuation average value of a variable in the infinite close to 1.In actual analysis, random fluctuations generally will not be the key consideration.After the merger of three variables (multiply), every month is equal to the actual sales

4

enter the downward cycle in December 2020, a slight rebound in the last three months.

after the seasonal decomposition excavator sales industry trends as shown in figure 2.Through this figure can be intuitive, accurate judgment:

the previous peak in February 2011, low in October 2015, the summit in November 2020, the interval between two peaks 9 years and 9 months (9.8 years).Since December 2020, the construction machinery industry into the downward cycle, and so far there have been 1 year 2 months.Excavator industry has provided, of course, most of the other product cycle turning point than excavator lag 1 to 6 months.

from sales trend charts you can see, before, during and after the first quarter of 2020 and because of the outbreak, sales industry trends have obvious "depression", forming a small valleys, and super compensation rebound, rising rapidly.In November 2020 to reach the peak, a sharp fall began in December 2020.In recent 3 months, that is, starting from November 2021, the industry sales trend rebound slightly.